Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.5  21.6  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  11.0  20.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  39.0  27.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.2%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       14.3%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       11.0%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        6.0%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%       18.1%       15.1%