Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  21.2  17.0   8.6  24.4   9.2  28.4  20.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  42.0  36.0  28.0  23.0  28.0  25.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   3.0  41.0  12.0   3.0  -3.0 -32.0  20.0  U  U  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -2.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       16.3%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        6.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        6.1%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       21.0%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        7.6%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%       14.9%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%       11.0%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%       22.6%       16.9%