Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  17.6   8.4  15.2  17.3  23.0  15.9  27.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  39.0  25.0  22.0  28.0  28.0  24.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  36.0  17.0 -36.0  17.0 -20.0   0.0   6.0  U  N  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  67.0  60.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -1.0 -11.0  -1.0  -7.0  -4.0  -6.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%       11.5%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       15.4%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        4.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       10.6%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        6.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%       17.5%       13.6%