Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     90.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3   7.3  13.9  21.7   7.7  27.8  11.0  29.4  F VF  F  N VF  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  24.0  29.0  32.0  21.0  40.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0   8.0   0.0  -5.0   2.0 -14.0 -17.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        5.6%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       32.5%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       16.3%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%       16.3%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       16.3%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       11.1%       49.3%       30.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%       28.5%       18.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.0%       23.0%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%       18.8%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       28.9%       18.8%