Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     90.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.2  15.8  22.6  16.0  25.4  19.4  28.1  18.6 VF  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  26.0  36.0  37.0  20.0  26.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -23.0   1.0  28.0  17.0  36.0  17.0  49.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  66.0  69.0  63.0  70.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -7.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        9.3%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       46.4%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       30.5%       19.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       30.5%       19.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       26.3%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       58.8%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%       40.6%       23.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       30.6%       22.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       27.8%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       34.1%       20.8%