Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  24.2  16.1   9.2  32.1  19.0  32.7  15.4  F  N  F  F  U  N  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  28.0  38.0  52.0  22.0  37.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -15.0  20.0   7.0 -11.0  18.0  23.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0   3.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       26.5%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       12.6%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       12.6%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       25.5%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%       10.9%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%       15.6%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%       10.5%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%       17.6%       11.2%