Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  15.9  12.2  28.1  19.4  33.9  17.5  31.2  N  F  F  N  N  U  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  40.0  51.0  33.0  23.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   7.0  17.0  23.0  18.0  28.0  28.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  66.0  63.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.1%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       20.3%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        8.8%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        8.8%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        8.8%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       19.4%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        6.9%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        8.6%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        5.4%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        9.2%        5.6%