Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  14.0  27.4  32.1  17.6  30.0  18.0  26.5  F  F  N  U  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  40.0  29.0  22.0  41.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -13.0  27.0  11.0  20.0  33.0  66.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       16.3%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.5%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        6.5%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.6%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       20.6%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        7.4%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        8.7%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       10.8%        6.7%