Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     93.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  28.0  32.3  18.1  34.1  22.2  28.5  22.1  F  N  U  F  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  33.0  23.0  22.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  26.0  23.0  28.0  33.0  29.0  47.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  64.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -2.0   6.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%       12.9%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       41.9%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       28.4%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h       16.8%       28.4%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       26.7%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       34.8%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       17.1%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%       14.2%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        9.2%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%       11.3%        6.1%