Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     94.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  30.3  17.4  23.4  33.0  16.8  28.7  28.7  N  N  F  N  U  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  22.0  22.0  33.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   0.0  42.0  42.0  16.0  48.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -9.0  -2.0  -9.0  -5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        9.7%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       42.5%       32.8%
 30kt / 24h       19.6%       30.9%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%       30.9%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       28.6%       15.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       25.9%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%       11.1%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%       14.0%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        7.7%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        7.5%        3.9%