Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00     95.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  20.7  25.2  35.1  22.3  28.7  21.9  21.9  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  30.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  46.0  66.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  21.0  21.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0   1.0   3.0 -10.0   0.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.3%       17.8%       23.1%
 25kt / 24h       30.8%       43.6%       37.2%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%       34.7%       28.8%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%       34.7%       28.8%
 40kt / 24h       16.9%       33.0%       25.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       27.3%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       12.0%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%       12.4%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        5.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%