Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  23.0  32.7  32.1  21.1  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  30.0   9.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  36.0  33.0  21.0  51.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.6%       29.1%       37.4%
 25kt / 24h       40.2%       52.7%       46.4%
 30kt / 24h       39.8%       49.8%       44.8%
 35kt / 24h       39.8%       49.8%       44.8%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%       45.0%       30.8%
 45kt / 36h       20.7%       38.4%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%       21.3%       14.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%       18.0%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        8.1%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%