Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  36.0  32.7  22.0  25.6  22.2  22.2  22.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  40.0  21.0  36.0  63.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  -7.0  -9.0   0.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.4%       31.1%       44.8%
 25kt / 24h       60.9%       58.5%       59.7%
 30kt / 24h       60.9%       58.5%       59.7%
 35kt / 24h       60.9%       58.5%       59.7%
 40kt / 24h       24.4%       57.2%       40.8%
 45kt / 36h       25.3%       30.9%       28.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.5%       15.5%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%       17.1%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        5.2%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%