Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     97.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  31.8  22.6  20.5  25.6  25.6  25.6  25.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  38.0  41.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0 -10.0   0.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        6.9%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       29.2%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h       20.8%       24.6%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       24.6%       22.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       23.4%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       10.7%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        7.7%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%