Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     98.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  22.3  21.4  26.8  21.9  21.9  21.9  21.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   8.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  43.0  46.0  43.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0   5.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%