Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082020 200726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     99.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.8  25.2  23.9  15.5  15.5  15.5  15.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   7.0   9.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  52.0  33.0  51.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0   7.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%