Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  11.5  16.4  19.3  18.2  25.2  24.6  25.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  41.0  99.0  66.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  54.0  65.0  60.0  67.0  67.0  59.0 -33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -5.0   4.0   8.0   9.0  23.0  15.0  15.0 VF  F  N  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%       10.8%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.9%       50.1%       37.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       33.9%       24.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       33.9%       20.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       33.9%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       21.9%       59.1%       40.5%
 55kt / 36h       14.2%       37.6%       25.9%
 55kt / 48h       29.1%       36.6%       32.9%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       30.6%       26.1%
 65kt / 72h       40.7%       36.0%       38.4%