Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10     54.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.1  14.4  13.1  30.6  32.8  39.9  33.7  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  34.0  37.0  99.0  38.0  45.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  F  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  56.0  61.0  50.0 100.0  51.0  18.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  54.0  50.0  44.0  47.0  N  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  15.0  28.0   4.0  -8.0  F  N  N  N  U VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        5.0%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       14.1%       36.0%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       21.6%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       21.6%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       21.6%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.7%       39.6%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       18.7%       13.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       19.5%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%       11.4%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h       21.8%       11.6%       16.7%