Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  15.1  22.1  25.3  30.7  40.3  32.7  37.4  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0 102.0  80.0  35.0  36.0  36.0  78.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  40.0  99.0 114.0  24.0  28.0  10.0 -16.0  N  N  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  44.0  47.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  20.0   8.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%       10.9%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       32.7%       54.9%       43.8%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       38.8%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       38.8%       24.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       34.7%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       44.7%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%       23.1%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%       17.9%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        9.5%        7.5%
 65kt / 72h       14.4%       11.2%       12.8%