Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  19.2  27.0  31.3  35.0  39.4  34.2  33.3  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  92.0  78.0  48.0  53.0  37.0  67.0  50.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  94.0  95.0  35.0  34.0 -20.0  -4.0   1.0  N  F  F  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  46.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0  14.0  15.0  13.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        8.5%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       19.7%       40.7%       30.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       25.2%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       25.2%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       19.9%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%       31.1%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       13.0%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       11.8%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        4.3%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       12.5%        7.8%       10.2%