Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  29.2  31.9  28.4  40.6  31.4  34.5  26.5  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  77.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  46.0  64.0  44.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  87.0  41.0  35.0  -5.0 -25.0 -23.0  19.0  F  F  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  15.0  24.0   4.0   9.0  -8.0   1.0  N  F  U VU  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        5.1%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       27.2%       19.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       13.1%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       13.1%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       10.9%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       16.6%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        5.3%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        7.1%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        2.6%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%        6.2%        8.4%