Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  34.5  37.4  35.2  31.8  33.7  29.2  35.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  43.0  36.0  46.0  51.0  40.0  31.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  30.0  18.0 -15.0  17.0  -9.0  13.0 -29.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  15.0  31.0  31.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   1.0 VU  U VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        4.9%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       18.1%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        9.0%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        9.0%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        6.9%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       11.9%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.8%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        2.3%        1.8%