Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     71.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  40.7  32.5  34.4  36.7  33.7  33.3  28.1 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  38.0  42.0  52.0  57.0  48.0  42.0  46.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  20.0  13.0  35.0   1.0   9.0 -24.0  24.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  56.0  55.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  32.0  33.0  14.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   7.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        6.2%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.1%        1.4%