Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  31.0  30.7  36.6  29.6  33.5  22.4  33.5  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  40.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  43.0  37.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  28.0  53.0   7.0  14.0  14.0  28.0  33.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  32.0  15.0   9.0   9.0   3.0   4.0  11.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.5%        4.7%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       14.1%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%        8.4%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.6%        8.4%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h       10.6%        8.4%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%        4.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        1.1%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%