Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  39.9  37.4  34.3  37.0  26.8  32.8  28.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  50.0  54.0  42.0  42.0  32.0  40.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  17.0 -19.0   0.0   9.0  34.0  24.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0   5.0  12.0  14.0   7.0   7.0  16.0  31.0 VU  N  U  U  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%