Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  32.5  33.0  35.7  27.9  35.4  24.5  31.6  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  50.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  32.0  37.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -25.0 -15.0   0.0  20.0  24.0  51.0  39.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  17.0  15.0   8.0   4.0  11.0  11.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.0%        3.9%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.3%        9.0%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%        5.3%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%        5.3%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%        5.3%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%        2.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        0.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%