Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  33.5  37.3  35.3  31.1  28.2  24.8  30.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  45.0  40.0  38.0  32.0  33.0  25.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -14.0  -3.0   6.0  30.0  22.0  66.0 103.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  20.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  18.0  16.0  U VU  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        3.3%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%        6.8%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%        3.7%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%        3.7%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%        3.7%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        1.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%