Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  37.0  38.7  30.1  38.5  25.9  36.1  50.2  U  U  U  N  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  39.0  37.0  34.0  30.0  34.0  15.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -9.0  13.0  37.0  40.0  59.0  73.0  88.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   7.0   3.0   5.0  12.0  11.0  29.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%