Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     78.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  36.2  27.6  30.9  28.6  32.4  33.8  67.6  U  U  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  37.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  33.0  10.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  45.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0  40.0  26.0  56.0  77.0 118.0  55.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -1.0   4.0  10.0  10.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%