Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  29.6  34.1  38.8  26.0  38.3  55.4  67.5  U  N  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  37.0  33.0  30.0  35.0  17.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  78.0  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  10.0  36.0  35.0  56.0  75.0  99.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   9.0  11.0  17.0  33.0  36.0 -11.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%