Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  38.3  34.6  30.4  43.7  59.9  77.7  83.5  U  U  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  33.0  34.0  19.0  17.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  66.0  19.2 -11.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  12.0  36.0  62.0  96.0  64.0  30.0  34.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  10.0  22.0  30.0  33.0   2.0  72.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        3.0%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       13.7%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        7.2%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        7.2%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        6.1%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        4.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%