Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  32.7  28.3  32.7  41.1  69.8  74.8  69.7  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  42.0  47.0  32.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  37.0  -4.7  -8.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  27.0  65.0  56.0 128.0  61.0  38.0  29.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0  15.0  29.0  18.0  34.0  33.0   1.0  U  N  U VU VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        2.2%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       11.0%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        4.9%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        4.9%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        4.9%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        3.6%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%