Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  26.7  34.2  40.6  61.9  77.8  74.4  49.9  U  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  42.0  26.0  17.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  58.0   9.0 -10.8 -14.9  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  62.0  60.0 112.0  58.0  24.0  15.0  38.0  U  N  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0  26.0  28.0  30.0  18.0 102.0 -12.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        2.6%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       10.7%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.2%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        5.2%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%