Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092020 200804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.00     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.7  65.7  76.5  75.8  55.8  19.8  16.8  16.8 VU VU VU VU VU  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  44.2  24.1  -3.4 -11.6 -15.9 -17.7 -17.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  91.0 107.0  52.0  45.0  15.0  30.0  30.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  14.0  31.0  41.0  49.0 -23.0  11.0  11.0  F  U VU VU VU VF  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons