Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102020 200731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     19.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.7  20.6  22.5  29.2  30.0  33.5  27.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  71.7  61.7  60.7  64.8  68.2  68.2  65.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -5.0   5.0  -1.0 -12.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -4.0   9.0   6.0  30.0  19.0  19.0   3.0  F  F  U  N VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons