Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102020 200801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     20.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.1  21.3  26.1  22.7  22.7  22.7  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  63.8  64.8  68.2  72.9  72.9  72.9  72.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  11.0   2.0   1.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   8.0   4.0  11.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  U  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons