Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102020 200801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     21.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  28.0  28.3  27.8  27.8  27.8  27.8  27.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  69.8  74.3  76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  76.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -24.0  -1.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  14.0  16.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons