Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  18.0  16.7  16.5  10.3  13.5  19.1  20.7  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  19.0  22.0  34.0  17.0  35.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 132.0 129.6 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -5.0 -30.0 -26.0 -51.0 -16.0  10.0  43.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.5%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       18.1%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        6.2%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        9.6%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        6.4%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%       16.3%       12.0%