Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  16.6  16.7  14.0  14.9  17.3  24.5  24.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  18.0  22.0  25.0  22.0  18.0  36.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 129.6 129.6 127.3 134.3 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -9.0  -5.0 -19.0 -40.0   2.0  25.0  76.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.6%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       17.9%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        6.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        9.3%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        6.2%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       13.7%       11.2%