Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.1  16.8  12.0  14.5  20.6  21.6  33.8  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  24.0  27.0  32.0  17.0  29.0  35.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 129.6 127.3 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0  -9.0  -6.0 -30.0  -8.0  29.0  30.0  52.0 VU  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.3%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       17.4%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        6.5%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        9.3%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        6.2%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%       12.4%       10.8%