Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.7  12.1  14.1  16.3  23.8  26.5  36.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  27.0  21.0  20.0  41.0  41.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.6 127.3 127.3 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -32.0 -52.0 -65.0  -4.0  11.0  39.0  49.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   8.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       14.0%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        5.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       22.3%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        9.2%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%       10.6%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        7.2%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%       12.2%       10.0%