Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     45.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  11.0  12.1  13.5  18.7  24.4  34.0  30.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  28.0  22.0  19.0  29.0  35.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.6 127.3 129.6 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -40.0 -52.0 -11.0  20.0  46.0  23.0  25.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   6.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.4%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       17.8%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        6.4%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        8.9%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        5.5%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        9.0%        9.1%