Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  10.7  12.2  14.7  23.3  26.9  33.2  34.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  21.0  19.0  21.0  36.0  45.0  54.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.3 129.6 132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -36.0   4.0  15.0  28.0  41.0  32.0  46.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   6.0   7.0  12.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       16.3%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        6.5%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        6.2%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.2%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       22.4%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        8.3%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       10.8%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        6.5%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       10.3%       11.1%