Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.9  13.0  19.3  22.8  32.1  29.5  38.5  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  21.0  34.0  36.0  50.0  46.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0  12.0  16.0  32.0  30.0  55.0  10.0  47.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   7.0   3.0  13.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       12.7%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       15.0%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.2%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        6.9%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        3.5%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%        6.9%        9.3%