Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     48.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.1  19.3  23.5  26.6  34.7  31.7  39.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  31.0  41.0  45.0  51.0  47.0  66.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  15.0  17.0  10.0  29.0  33.0  14.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   8.0   9.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       18.7%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.9%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       22.9%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        8.3%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        9.2%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        4.9%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        8.4%        9.2%