Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     50.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  20.0  23.4  22.3  34.3  32.8  39.9  34.9  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  30.0  36.0  35.0  54.0  44.0  55.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  40.0   8.0  15.0  33.0  19.0  40.0  31.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   7.0   9.0  10.0   8.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        8.3%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       33.8%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       19.9%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       19.9%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       19.9%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       30.7%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       13.1%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%       10.4%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        5.6%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        6.9%        7.2%