Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     51.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  22.6  21.7  25.4  36.0  33.2  39.3  33.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  36.0  36.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  71.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  24.0  32.0  27.0  37.0  32.0  26.0  43.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0  10.0   9.0  10.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.5%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       15.6%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       10.4%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        5.3%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        3.8%        6.8%