Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.0  23.0  31.3  30.6  41.6  35.6  34.9  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  36.0  46.0  52.0  45.0  63.0  72.0  56.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  45.0  39.0  42.0  23.0  23.0  28.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0   7.0   9.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       10.9%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        3.8%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        3.8%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        7.5%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.3%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%        2.7%        6.1%