Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     54.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  24.0  32.5  33.8  34.5  43.1  35.3  41.5  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  50.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  62.0  66.0  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  33.0  31.0  26.0  24.0  10.0  27.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.3%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.7%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        2.3%        4.7%