Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  36.4  35.6  33.3  45.5  41.5  42.9  28.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  60.0  53.0  42.0  53.0  60.0  39.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  29.0  42.0  30.0  40.0  11.0  30.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   9.0   6.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.9%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        1.5%        2.0%